Predicting Total Organic Carbon Load with El Niño Southern Oscillation Phase Using Hybrid and Fuzzy Logic Approaches
نویسندگان
چکیده
During drinking water treatment, chlorine reacts with total organic carbon (TOC) to form disinfection byproducts (DBP), some of which can be carcinogenic. Additional treatment required to remove TOC before chlorination significantly increases treatment cost. There are two main sources of TOC in a water supply reservoir: (1) the watershed draining to the reservoir, and (2) the internal loading within the reservoir. Of these two sources, the watershed TOC load can be significant, especially when the watershed has large wetland areas. TOC loads in the Southeast U.S. can be affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced climate variability. Since ENSO can be forecasted a few months in advance, ENSO-based TOC load forecasts can be used to tailor additional treatment required for TOC removal (e.g., activated carbon) before chlorination, thus reducing treatment costs. The objectives of this study were to quantity the effect of ENSO on watershed TOC loads and develop data-driven modeling approaches for forecasting TOC loads. Four hybrid and four fuzzy logic models, with different model architectures, were developed for forecasting watershed TOC loads using temperature, precipitation, Niño 3.4, and Trans Niño Index (TNI). This study concludes that the hybrid models are suitable for estimating real-time TOC loads, while the fuzzy logic models are suitable for qualitative forecasting of TOC loads with one-month lead time. In addition, this study highlights the importance of incorporating ENSO information into data-driven models in ENSO-affected regions.
منابع مشابه
El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation impacts on precipitation in the southern and central United States: Evaluation of spatial distribution and predictions
[1] Understanding and predicting regional impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on winter (October–March) precipitation can provide valuable inputs to agricultural and water resources managers. Effects of ENSO and PDO on winter precipitation were assessed in 165 climate divisions throughout the southern United States. A continuous region of signifi...
متن کاملCoordinated Control of Doubley Fed Induction Generator Virtual Inertia and Power System Oscillation Damping Using Fuzzy Logic
Doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG) based wind turbines with traditional maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control provide no inertia response under system frequency events. Recently, the DFIG wind turbines have been equipped with virtual inertia controller (VIC) for supporting power system frequency stability. However, the conventional VICs with fixed gain have negative effects on inter-ar...
متن کاملSouthern Hemisphere extra-tropical forcing: a new paradigm for El Niño-Southern Oscillation
متن کامل
The Influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Caribbean Tropical Cyclone Activity
Caribbean basin tropical cyclone activity shows significant variability on interannual as well as multidecadal time scales. Comprehensive statistics for Caribbean hurricane activity are tabulated, and then large-scale climate features are examined for their impacts on this activity. The primary interannual driver of variability is found to be El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which alters levels of...
متن کاملEpochs of phase coherence between El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian monsoon
[1] We present a modern method used in nonlinear time series analysis to investigate the relation of two oscillating systems with respect to their phases, independently of their amplitudes. We study the difference of the phase dynamics between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Monsoon on inter-annual time scales. We identify distinct epochs, especially two intervals of phase co...
متن کامل